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Football finance expert predicts a transfer worth €200m is just TWO years away

Date Posted,July 1, 2017

A football finance expert predicts that a €200million (£175.5m) transfer is just two years away.

Dr Raffaele Poli heads the CIES Football Observatory, which is funded by FIFA and Neuchatel University, and has been analysing increasing rise in football fees.

The world record transfer amount currently stands at £89m from Paul Pogba’s move to Manchester United last season.

But fees in excess of £100m have been touted this summer – and they are only set to sky rocket further.

CIES study the movement of finances in football and has an 80 per cent accuracy rate when it comes to predicting transfer fees.

Pogba’s £89m move to Manchester United is the current record deal (Photo: Man Utd via Getty)
TV deals have helped ramp up the price of football (Photo: Getty Images Europe)

“In two or three years’ time, there will be €200m transfers,” Poli told the Sunday Times.

“We won’t publish the formula, but we’re trying for transparency because the goal in all our research is to help ordinary people understand football. [Transfers] especially need explanation.”

Individual commissions have been issued by two Premier League teams – and others in Europe’s top leagues – to use the formula in a bid to help them work out how much they should pay for prospective new signings.

Top level clubs are now hiring data boffins to assess the ever-increasing numbers, with Manchester City, Liverpool, Tottenham and Arsenal all using them.

Neymar is the most valuable footballer in the world right now (Photo: Getty)
Alli’s value is set to sky rocket (Photo: AFP)

The model used by CIES currently estimates that Neymar (£185m), Dele Alli (£136m) and Harry Kane (£134.5m) are top of the valuations.

Poli believes that Alli has the potential to become the first player to break the €200m transfer fee barrier.

He said: “He’s English. He’s in the Premier League. Has a long-term contract. Next year, if he’s succeeding in the Champions League and Tottenham do even better, then maybe he’s €200m.”

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